Many places are to be restless. And around one quarter of people are already experiencing drought and related food insecurity. By 2070one-fifth of the Earth’s surface can be too hot for a normal human’s life, causing that 3.5 billion people to move. Only sea level rise can change that 410 million 2100 people in the world.
We are poised to witness the largest and fastest movement in human history. New policies will be needed. In 2025, we will begin the transition from action to sustainability, and begin to acknowledge the importance of climate-driven migration.
Unsurprisingly, climate-driven migration will affect the poorest and most vulnerable ethnic communities. Those with the fewest tools to adapt, those who did nothing to cause the climate crisis, are the ones who can withstand it. Think about it 33 million have been displaced by the floods in Pakistan in 2022, where 9.4 million acres of farmland were damaged or destroyed. Consider how America’s history of segregation increases climate risks-areas that have already been changed they have 25 percent more homes that face a high risk of flooding. But no man, no place is safe – think about the heat in Europe in 2022 killed more than 61,000 peoplewhere few people have air conditioners because they were not needed. At the rate humanity continues to emit greenhouse gases, it may all be just an experiment.
Until now, climate migration has been done in most countries, but as the areas affected by extreme weather grow, this should change. We will have to be vigilant to avoid xenophobia, acknowledging the brutal injustice that is happening because the lowest greenhouse gas emitters, like the Pacific islands, are the first to be flooded.
Where will people go? How will this be handled? One thing is certain: Ignoring the problem will not solve it; on the contrary, it will cause chaos. At the national, national, and regional level, we will begin to develop policies to implement the current laws and regulations, such as banning the construction of houses in high-risk areas. One example is the State of New Jersey buy about 200 landowners in the town of Woodbridge—one of the areas most affected by flooding from Hurricane Irene in 2011 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012—to stop new construction and restore the area to nature.
Other strategies and policies include preparing low-risk areas to become host communities for people who need to move. In the Pacific Ocean, which is one of the world’s largest greenhouse gases, entire countries are at risk of being submerged. The nation of Kiribati has already said so bought land in Fiji as part of their plan to eventually relocate people if needed due to sea level rise. In 2023, 18 Pacific Island countries agreed Pacific Regional Framework on Climate Mobilitywhich outlines a number of important issues such as regional cooperation in relation to cross-border migration to ensure that human rights are respected, developing policies for dialogue with migrants and coordinating support between countries for cross-border migration.
In 2025, in terms of population and families, we will see those with the means begin to move faster. In the past, 11 percent Americans have decided to move to avoid the damage of global warming, and nearly 75 percent hesitate to buy a home in an area with extreme weather hazards like wildfires (more than 30 million houses in the lower 48 US states are at risk of wildfires).
We will also continue to see the insurance market contribute significantly to these changes, as the high-risk environment becomes increasingly uncertain. For example, in 2023, a National Flood Insurance Program changed its rates for the first time since it was enacted in 1968. As a result, the average cost of flood insurance has risen in many places—in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, it rose more than 1,000 percent.
In 2025, rebuilding in the same place after a severe climate, which has been done until now, will sound like nonsense. It’s not that people want to migrate, leave the areas and ecosystems they love and call home; and that they should. Cultures and diasporas are beginning to move to embrace this new reality. Many of them will be faced with a difficult question: What does home mean in times of extreme weather?
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