According to Bodoque, we also need to develop a risk map. It is important to assess people’s vulnerability, which means considering the social, economic, physical, institutional, and cultural factors that make an area vulnerable to climate change. It is important to understand all the components of what increases people’s vulnerability: not only looking at bad weather, but also how they feel, and how to cope. Bodoque’s research has found that most literature on the risk of natural disasters usually only considers two dimensions – social and economic – and the characteristics and culture of the regions are neglected.
Regarding the difficulties of integrating the map of areas prone to flooding to make regional decisions, Bodoque points out that in the European Union there is a management system that includes a preliminary assessment of the risk of flooding, as well as risk maps in which the risk must be calculated according to the population and disclosed material. There is much to improve; The flood risk map gives a lot of uncertainty.” In part, he explains, this is because flooding occurs randomly. It is certain that when a flood has already happened, it will come again later, but it is impossible to know whether it will happen in five years or 300 years.
In addition to this, Bodoque explains, there is another issue. The fields that feed the risk maps are not fixed values, but levels – you can feed in a high, medium, or low value, as you wish. However, the maps used in Spain and many other countries are definitive; that is, they only indicate flood-free and non-flooded areas. In other words, they only see black and white. “I’m offering one painting, where for every stage and for different colors I have unlimited output,” says Bodoque. Uncertainty is broken down into a map of certainty that can create a false sense of security.
It is important, says Bodoque, to change this method of creating maps that represent the risk potential in areas prone to flooding. This approach can better reflect the uncertainty inherent in flood events. However, this viable option comes at a very high cost.
In order to better deal with the dangers posed by typhoons, Bodoque emphasizes the need to educate people about the dangers they face. In Spain, he and his colleagues have found that people exposed to natural disasters are less aware of their vulnerability, perhaps because severe weather does not occur every year.
A low risk perception has dangerous consequences, as it encourages irrational decisions in dangerous situations. Against this background, Bodoque suggests creating communication strategies for different audiences. In a story published in the Journal of Hydrology, of which he is a co-author, Bodoque points out that although “risk management using modern methods can make people safer,” the implementation of a good risk communication system can help to respond better. to emergency notifications.
This article appeared first WIRED in Spanish and translated from Spanish.
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