For the past few years, Syria has been mired in an unstable, divided and devastated state after more than a decade of civil war, but the front lines have cooled and the worst of the fighting appears to have ended.
President Bashar al-Assad’s regime claimed a Pyrrhic victory after brutally crushing the insurgency with the help of Russian, Iranian and Iranian-backed forces. It had regained control of most of the war-torn country, while the remnants of the war rebels were pushed back to the northern and northwestern regions, surviving under the control and protection of Turkey.
But this week, the stalemate was disrupted when militants led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham broke out of their strongholds in Idlib province and launched attacks in the north against government forces, moving towards Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city. By Saturday, they were approaching Hama, to the south.
The attack underscored the weakness and insecurity of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and his reliance on foreign forces to support it, 13 years after a popular coup sparked civil strife.
It also highlighted the weakness of the Syrian army and the military capabilities of HTS. His fighters launched violence on Wednesday and posed for photographs in front of Aleppo’s palace in the heart of the city of about 2mn on Friday, as government forces appeared to be melting away.
HTS is the most powerful of the remaining rebel groups, al-Nusra, a jihadist group that emerged from the chaos of the Syrian war as an affiliate of al-Qaeda. It is led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who once fought for Isis in Iraq. He was designated a terrorist by the US ten years ago and has a $10mn bounty on his head.
The group has controlled Idlib, home to between 3mn and 4mn people, for six years; many people who are here have fled to the area to escape the Assad regime.
Jolani renounced his ties to al-Qaeda in 2016 and in recent years has sought to rebuild HTS as an independent Islamist group while consolidating the group in Idlib.
He has also been encouraging the army – it is said to have used drones this week – as it expresses its ambitions, said Malik al-Abdeh, a Syria expert.
Abdeh said that in October, as Jolani planned the attacks, HTS is communicating with other rebel groups in the north that are part of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, saying that it is positioning itself as the “Conqueror of Aleppo”.
He added that HTS has up to 30,000 fighters. Its ranks are full of fighters and religious freedom fighters who receive higher salaries than Turkish defenders.
Abdeh added that the Islamist movement sees itself as the Syrian Sunni Muslim equivalent of Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shia movement.
“Jolani wants to play like [former Hizbollah leader] Hassan Nasrallah to the Sunnis, “said Abdeh. “With Jolani, it is not so much related to ideology and power. He wants to do everything possible to establish himself in Syria and he has never hidden that he wants to conquer Damascus.
Hizbollah’s 14-month offensive against Israel may have given Jolani an opportunity to move. Along with Russia and Iran, Hizbollah and other Iranian-backed Shia rebels were crucial to Assad’s ability to end the rebellion.
But since the attack of Hamas on October 7 2023, Israel has defeated Hizbollah in a series of devastating blows in Lebanon, including the killing of Nasrallah, and repeatedly struck Iranian targets and terrorists in Syria, while warning Assad must choose a side.
HTS launched a few hours after the US cease-fire agreement to end the conflict in Lebanon between Israel and Hizbollah went into effect.
Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute said HTS had spent the past four years intensively training and developing technical skills.
He said that they had “excellent command and control lines, dedicated drones, night forces and other types of special forces”, and developed their weapons manufacturing capabilities.
Lister said the attacks could continue “so far before they escalate” but had already managed to restore “the control measures” they had six years ago.
Analysts say HTS is linked to Turkish-backed rebels in the Syrian National Army, but the latter’s forces have not been fully deployed to the battlefield.
The SNA is said to have around 40,000 fighters, but it is made up of different factions based in northern Syria, which is controlled by Turkey and the Arab world is divided into several factions.
Ankara’s main goal in Syria was to get rid of the Kurdish rebels who are fueling the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a separatist group that has waged terrorist attacks against Turkey for years. This includes the US-backed Kurdish forces fighting Isis and controlling areas in northeastern Syria.
Turkey’s links to HTS, which it also refers to as a terrorist group, are complicated. It acts as the main protector of Idlib against the heavy attacks of the Russian army and their Russian supporters, while Ankara also controls the borders of the province, while HTS depends on trade and taxes. However, the Islamic movement also started to fight against Turkish-backed terrorists.
Although Turkey did not approve of the HTS attack in advance, it could be useful for Ankara if it wants to use the unrest to push back against the Kurdish rebels, experts say.
“Turkey is the main protector of Idlib and the main supporter of Idlib that HTS cannot afford to ignore. But it is a difficult relationship, there are ups and downs,” said Dareen Khalifa of the Crisis Group. “But it does not see it as an Islamic threat. In fact, this is a useful tool, useful for storage [Syrian] refugees across the border and following jihadis groups. ”
Haid Haid, a Syria expert at Chatham House, said it was still unclear whether the group’s resettlement from its jihadist homeland was genuine.
“If you look at their story, they are trying to show that they have changed their ways. But there are many issues related to how they control the areas they control, and the central system,” said Haid. “The real test will be when there is a discussion to see if he means what he says.” . . They say they want to be political players, that they are ready to participate. But no one has been officially involved in testing whether the claims are true or not. ”
Idlib is controlled by the “Syrian Salvation Army”, led by HTS. The UN Syria Commission of Inquiry said in a September report that it documented the “torture and execution of detainees” held by HTS in the north-west of the country.
Natasha Hall, senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said HTS is “very strong, self-controlled, and financially independent. [opposition] group”.
“They have a firm control over the various finances in Idlib and they have ruled with an iron fist – trying to eliminate any disagreement,” he said.
After Assad began to change the course of the civil war with the help of Russia and Iran, including the siege and bombing of Aleppo in 2016, many rebels and their supporters fled to Idlib or were transferred to the province by the government as part of it. armistice agreements.
Haid said it was difficult to determine the extent of support for HTS because often Syrians are “choosing between bad and bad”.
“For many people, they may not be happy with HTS in those places, but they are content to stay if that means the alternative is the Assad regime,” he said.
Leave a Reply